2026 NCAA tournament, odds: 5 things to know about betting college basketball

Ben FawkesThu, March 5, 2026 at 2:10 PM UTC

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The calendar has flipped to March, which means that Selection Sunday and the 2026 NCAA tournament are right around the corner. With the Super Bowl ending just a few weeks ago and the NBA heading into the playoff push, chances are most casual sports fans haven't been watching too much college basketball.

That means the NCAA tournament is the first time they'll be tuning in to watch the vast majority of the 68 teams participating.

In order to help with tourney betting and filling out your bracket pools, here are five things to know:

1) Vary your bracket picking strategy depending on the size of your pool

Most NCAA tournament pools are pretty straightforward: You pick a straight-up winner in every game and continue throughout the bracket until you’ve picked a national champion.

If you’re in a pool with hundreds of other people, though, you'll likely need to go a bit contrarian with your picks because the vast majority of people are going to pick a lot of favorites.

If you’re in a smaller pool, you’ll have a better chance of winning with a much chalkier bracket. And while it’s always exciting to pick upsets, remember that 14 of the past 18 national champions have been a No. 1 seed, including the Florida Gators last year.

Be sure to use tools like Yahoo’s public pick percentage tab to see which teams the majority of people are picking to win each game.

2) Do your research

The first round of the NCAA tournament always tips off early on Thursday afternoon — but that doesn't mean you need to wait until Thursday morning to fill out your bracket or get your bets in.

For casual bettors with limited time, I’d recommend using analytics sites (like KenPom or Bart Torvik) to see power ratings and advanced stats for the tournament teams and do the majority of your research on the top-three seed lines.

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Every year is different, but since 1985 a staggering 35 of the 40 national champions have been a top-three seed, so you’ll have a better grasp of the true title contenders and winning your pool by focusing your research on those teams.

3) Know the spreads and shop around

It may sound obvious, but just knowing the spreads for the first-round games will give you an advantage when filling out your bracket.

For example, there are four 5-12 matchups every first round, but they’re not all created equal. A 5-12 matchup where the No. 5 seed is only a 4-point favorite (and maybe -180 on the money line) means oddsmakers think an upset is a lot more likely than if the 5 seed is an 8-point favorite (and perhaps -350 on the money line). Chances are many people in your pool aren’t aware of the spreads for the games.

Be sure to shop around for the best available odds as well. Sportsbooks will have different odds on the games, including money-line prices, so always compare prices at a few sportsbooks before placing a bet to maximize your potential profits.

4) Bet on underdogs to cover … and win

The NCAA tournament will see plenty of upsets. If you handicap a game and find an underdog that you like to cover the spread, allocate a smaller wager on that team to win the game outright as well. This will maximize your winnings when you handicap a game correctly.

5) Set a bankroll, stick to it and have fun

Remember that the NCAA tournament has 68 teams, and as a casual college basketball fan, you’ve likely watched only a few minutes of several of them. You don’t know which teams play zone vs. man, which teams shoot free throws at a high percentage and which are terrific at hitting 3-pointers.

Your bankroll needs to last through the spring and summer — remember, there's a World Cup this year — to get to football season, so don’t run through it betting on or against a lot of teams that you know very little about. Consider reducing your betting unit size over the first few rounds as you watch and learn more about the teams that advance — and betting a little more as the tournament goes on.

And most importantly, have fun!

If you’re throwing a chair across the room because you bet on a 14-seed to cover the spread and they suffered a bad beat at the buzzer, it's a pretty good sign that you’re probably betting too much money on the game.

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Source: “AOL Sports”