Where Canon Can Actually Disrupt ASML
Where Canon Can Actually Disrupt ASML
Alex SiroisMon, August 24, 2026 at 12:02 PM UTC
0
IntelQuick Read -
ASML's Q2 revenue hit $10.65B, up 21% year over year, while Canon targets NAND and specialty logic with nanoimprint lithography ASML won't chase.
Export controls will shrink ASML's China revenue significantly in 2026, handing Canon a regulatory edge at mature-node fabs across the region.
ASML's EUV monopoly and record backlog support its $677B market cap, but shares up 141% in a year make the entry uncomfortable.
Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks — and ASML didn't make the cut. Grab the names FREE today.
ASML (NASDAQ: ASML) just delivered a record quarter fueled by AI chip demand. Canon (OTC: CAJPY) is pushing nanoimprint lithography into memory and mature logic instead of chasing EUV. Two lithography players, two philosophies, one increasingly crowded fab equipment market where cost per wafer suddenly matters.
AI Backlog Fuels ASML. Nanoimprint Buys Canon Time.
ASML posted Q2 revenue of $10.65 billion, up 21.25% year over year, with EPS of 8.6688 marking a fourth consecutive beat. Installed Base Management alone brought in $3.15 billion, driven by upgrade demand on already-deployed tools. CEO Christophe Fouquet said "Our order intake remained extremely strong in the first half of the year", and management now expects EUV net system sales to grow over 45% this year.
Canon does not disclose lithography results at that granularity. The relevant story is strategic: its FPA-1200NZ2C nanoimprint platform targets memory and mature logic customers who never needed EUV. That is a real niche.
Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks — and ASML didn't make the cut. Grab the names FREE today.
Business Driver
Canon
Growth Engine
EUV systems and service upgrades
Nanoimprint plus mature-node tools
Customer Focus
TSMC, Samsung, SK Hynix, Intel
NAND makers, specialty foundries
Management Priority
Capacity ramp for 2027 and 2028
Cost per wafer at legacy nodes
Monopoly Playbook Vs. Cheap-Chip Wedge
ASML is spending like a company with no direct EUV competitor. It plans to add 30% more low NA EUV capacity for 2027 and is studying another 30% for 2028. A €12 billion buyback and a €1.3 billion Mistral AI partnership reinforce the message. Forward P/E sits at 39x, which is rich but understandable given 53.9% return on equity.
Advertisement
Canon's angle is asymmetric. It cannot beat ASML at 2nm. If nanoimprint delivers acceptable defectivity on NAND or specialty logic, Canon captures wafers ASML would rather not chase. That is where disruption lives, though I am skeptical it goes further.
Where Canon's Wedge Actually Bites
ASML expects China to represent around 20% of total net sales this year, with China revenue set to decline significantly in 2026 under export controls. Canon operates under a different regulatory regime out of Japan. If Chinese fabs pivot to mature and specialty processes, that is Canon's zone. A marquee memory customer publicly qualifying nanoimprint for production would change the conversation.
Why I Still Lean ASML, But Keep A Small Bookmark On Canon
I lean ASML. The EUV monopoly, record backlog, and installed-base annuity read like a business that has earned its $677 billion market cap. Shares are up 141.44% over the past year, so the entry point is uncomfortable. Canon fits a different investor: someone hunting an underfollowed name where CAJPY's underfollowed profile already prices in low expectations. If nanoimprint scores a real memory design win, that thesis has teeth. Until then, ASML carries the stronger fundamental profile while Canon stays a watchlist idea.
Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks — and ASML didn't make the cut. Grab the names FREE today.
Contact editorial@247wallst.com for any questions or corrections.
Source: “AOL Money”
