Winter is ending, but the polar vortex is still in March's forecast
Winter is ending, but the polar vortex is still in March's forecast
Doyle Rice, USA TODAYSat, February 28, 2026 at 11:03 AM UTC
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Hello spring?
The weather forecast is looking promising for warmer weather as the calendar turns to March. In the East, a dramatic warm-up is in the forecast, and the Climate Prediction Center's outlook for March 6 to 12 shows warmth spreading across much of the nation, including the beleaguered Northeast.
But a winter weather boogieman may still be lurking.
"We are not completely done from an influence from the polar vortex," said AccuWeather meteorologist Paul Pastelok in an e-mail to USA TODAY.
The infamous weather pattern is actually partly influencing our weather as February ends. And it may again throughout the month of March, forecasters told USA TODAY.
Meanwhile, Sunday, March 1, is the first day of meteorological spring, which is the three months when meteorologists expect the weather to feel more like spring (even if it sometimes takes the calendar a few weeks to catch up).
Polar vortex helped shape multiple cold weather outbreaks
The polar vortex made its biggest headlines of the winter in late January and early February, as it was a significant factor in the Arctic air that flooded south into the eastern United States, helping produce record cold and memorable snowstorms.
As meteorologists predicted multiple cold snaps this winter, the polar vortex was often one of the many forces at play. After the dust settled, experts found only one example (in late January and early February) where sudden stratospheric warming (and the polar vortex disruption that causes) was the primary cause of freezing weather in the United States.
But disruptions of another phenomenon, the Arctic Oscillation, contributed to frigid temperatures as well.
Experts, including Laura Ciasto, a meteorologist with NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, tend to describe cold outbreaks as a dance between multiple weather forces.
"It's been an active winter for both the stratospheric polar vortex and the Arctic Oscillation (AO)," Ciasto told USA TODAY in an e-mail.
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The polar vortex has become a popular point of discussion in winter weather, in part because of its catchy name. But meteorologists note it's a complex and confounding climate force that acts in mysterious ways.
For one thing, a weaker polar vortex tends to send cold air to the United States, as it fails to contain cold air way above the Arctic. (For another: Meteorologists will distinguish between a stratospheric and tropospheric polar vortex, based on where the cold air is in the atmosphere.)
1 / 0Snow up to your eyeballs! Photos show how deep the wintry blanket got
A Nor'easter winter storm buried streets, cars and neighborhoods across the Northeast. At least 49 locations reported more than 24 inches of snow by 1:30 p.m. on Monday. Matt Powers shovels a Jersey City sidewalk, Monday, February 23, 2026 after more than a foot of snow had blanketed the area.
Polar vortex changes may shape the forecast again for March
Pastelok said a "lobe" of the vortex is extending into eastern North America and is influencing the cold, snow and ice into early March in the Great Lakes, Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, although the polar vortex isn't the only weather system at play.
A polar vortex expert, MIT's Judah Cohen, told USA TODAY that "another sudden stratospheric warming looks all but inevitable and this time it would be a polar vortex split. This looks to take place at the end of the first week of March."
(Sudden stratospheric warming is a rapid warming high above the Arctic that disrupts the polar vortex — and can set the stage for major winter weather shifts weeks later down here in the United States.)
Cohen said the warmth could be replaced later in the month by more cold. "I would expect a milder period in the eastern US until close to the spring equinox," Cohen said. "Then I think eventually colder weather arrives to the eastern US related to the polar vortex split in late March or early April that could hang around for a while."
We still need to watch the storm track in late March, Pastelok noted. "Perhaps (there will be) a late winter storm anywhere from the upper Midwest to the interior Northeast."
Above-average temperatures are finally forecast for the eastern U.S. by March 6-12, 2026, according to this map from NOAA.Cold weather might impact the West this time
This time, the impacts from the split vortex would be for colder and stormier weather in western North America in early March, Pastelok said. Conversely, for many areas in the eastern U.S., temperatures will run above average from March 5-15. "This will lead to rapid snow melt and ice jams in U.S. from the Ohio Valley to the Northeast that can cause flooding."
Cohen agreed with Pastelok, saying that "ironically even though everyone gets most excited about a polar vortex split (that it will cause more severe winter weather) I think the only guarantee is that it will likely bring a milder period to the eastern U.S. that could be multiple weeks. Instead, it probably favors colder, stormier weather in the Western U.S."
Doyle Rice is a national correspondent for USA TODAY, focusing on weather and climate.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: The polar vortex isn't done. It's still in the March 2026 forecast.
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